Leeds United are in a dire situation. The Whites continue to lose games in the Premier League consistently, with their most recent defeat coming away to Manchester City, 3-2 at the Etihad Stadium.
Indeed, bagging two goals away to Pep Guardiola’s side was impressive, and the performance going forward was slightly better.
The Whites managed nine shots at Gianluigi Donnarumma’s goal, with four of those finding the target. They were more clinical, too, scoring two out of the three big chances they created.
Yet, with another loss, the pressure continues to mount on Daniel Farke, and the underlying numbers are evidence as to why.
Leeds' underlying numbers this season
Many people expected the West Yorkshire side to be in a relegation fight by the end of the season, including ESPN pundit Bill Connelly, who predicted them to finish 18th. Well, they are now in that exact position in the Premier League, with 11 points to their name.
Goalscoring has been a real issue for the Whites this term. Farke’s side have only bagged 13 goals. That is better than one side, bottom-place Wolverhampton Wanderers, who have only scored seven times.
Leeds are drastically underachieving on their expected goals, too, a metric which currently stands at 16.96 xG. That is almost four goals more than what they have managed, the third biggest underachievement in the Premier League this season.
The spread of goals in their squad is perhaps concerning, too. Summer signing Lukas Nmecha is their top scorer in the Premier League with four, and only three players have found the back of the net multiple times. Dominic Calvert-Lewin is one of those, after he scored his second of the season against City at the weekend.
Looking at those numbers, it might not be a surprise that Leeds are struggling as much as they are. It is why Farke’s job is under pressure, although an alternative could have been identified.
Leeds' Farke alternative
A recent report from talkSPORT suggests that the Whites are ‘admirers’ of former Nottingham Forest and Tottenham Hotspur manager Ange Postecoglou.
Of course, he hasn’t long been out of the game, having left the East Midlands a few months ago, but could already return to the Premier League if Leeds approach.
His first season in North London showed exactly how good he can be. Described as a “highly entertaining” manager by former Spurs star Graham Roberts, Postecoglou played high-octane football, which helped the Lilywhites qualify for the Europa League.
That is a style the Elland Road faithful might be used to. Marcelo Bielsa, one of their best managers in recent years, was famed for his energetic brand of football, a style Anthony Hudson said is “a really positive approach.”
In fact, former Chelsea and Arsenal defender William Gallas has even said that “demands remind me a little bit of Bielsa” because of how “physically exhausting” it can be. Remember Bielsa’s famed murder ball? Well, that could be back at Thorp Arch before too long.
In Postecoglou’s first campaign in the hot seat at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium, the Australian won 21 games in 41 that he coached. His side were fluid going forward, bagging 79 times across all competitions.
It is interesting to look at a comparison between the numbers that Postecoglou’s Spurs put up in their first 13 games in the Premier League, compared to Farke’s side from this season. Indeed, they stack up well and hint at the attacking football he could bring to Elland Road.
For example, Spurs had scored 25 goals in those opening 13 matches in 2023/24. They were overachieving slightly when it came to expected goals, too. The Lilywhites racked up 23.83 xG, a steady pace along with their actual total.
Points
26
11
Expected points
20.66xPTS
17.88xPTS
Goals
25
13
Expected goals
23.83xG
16.96xG
Goals conceded
17
25
Expected goals conceced
21.28xGA
18.52xGA
It is easy to see how Postecoglou could be an upgrade on Farke. The Australian manager might play risky football with a high line, but it has proven to be entertaining and a good source of goals.
The numbers highlighted show what fans can expect to see if the Whites execute Postecoglou’s game plan well. He could certainly bring an exciting brand of football to Elland Road and would ultimately be an upgrade on Farke.
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